Robotaxis Are Forecast to Become a $400 Billion Market in 2035

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The autonomous vehicle industry is moving from experimental concept to commercial reality, with deployments expanding across the US, China, and new international markets.

TL;DR
• The global robotaxi market is projected to reach $415 billion in 2035, with the US portion estimated at $48 billion.
• Autonomous trucking is expected to become cheaper per mile than human-driven trucks in 2028 in the US.
• The global commercial AV robotaxi fleet is forecast to grow from roughly 7,000 vehicles last year to about 6 million in 2035.

Summary
The report projects the global robotaxi market to reach $415 billion by 2035, with the U.S. segment growing to $48 billion. Autonomous trucking is expected to become cost‑competitive with human drivers by 2028, reaching $560 billion worldwide in 2035. The commercial AV fleet is forecast to expand from 7,000 vehicles in 2024 to 6 million by 2035, while AI‑driven revenue could hit $300 billion.
• Target early‑stage AI talent acquisition to accelerate software development.
• Invest in scalable hardware platforms to reduce per‑mile costs below $1 by 2035.
• Leverage data partnerships for real‑time safety analytics and customer insights.
• Expand fleet operations into emerging markets to capture early adoption benefits.

The analysis highlights that gross margins for vertically integrated operators could reach 30–50%, generating a global profit pool of $150 billion in 2035 and $440 billion cumulatively over the decade. Cost reductions stem from lower vehicle depreciation, insurance, and supervisory wages, with the human‑supervisor ratio projected to improve from 6‑to‑1 to 26‑to‑1.

AV trucking economics shift rapidly: upfront equipment costs are expected to fall from $125,000–$150,000 to $35,000–$40,000 by 2035, while per‑mile operating costs drop from $8.56 to $2.03. Human‑driven trucks will see costs rise from $2.55 to $2.84, driven by wage increases. AV trucks will also bypass hours‑of‑service limits, enabling higher mileage and route flexibility.

Personal vehicle ownership is unlikely to decline sharply in the next decade, as AV ride costs may remain above $1 per mile, keeping ownership attractive. However, a shift to shared autonomous fleets could reduce annual U.S. vehicle sales to 10–13 million units from the historical 16 million. The report underscores the importance of continuous learning, cross‑disciplinary collaboration, and inclusive access to emerging technologies to navigate this transformative landscape.

As the autonomous vehicle industry continues to evolve, it's essential to consider the potential impact on personal car ownership and the future of transportation.